Docs/IPO Base Builder
IPO Play

IPO Base Builder

Scan for recent IPOs building their first proper base after the post-IPO selloff. The setup O'Neil calls the most powerful. Each setup graded A+ to B.

Run this scan →

What is this pattern?

The IPO base is widely regarded as one of the most powerful base patterns in technical analysis. William O'Neil devoted significant attention to IPO bases in How to Make Money in Stocks, noting that many of the greatest winning stocks of all time launched their biggest advances from their first proper base after going public.

The life cycle of a typical IPO follows a predictable pattern: initial excitement drives the stock to a post-IPO high, followed by a significant decline of 30-60% as lock-up expirations, insider selling, and profit-taking create heavy supply. This decline shakes out weak holders and creates the conditions for institutional accumulation. The IPO base forms when this selling exhausts itself and the stock begins consolidating in a tight range — typically less than 15% from high to low — for 4 or more weeks. Volume contraction during this consolidation is critical: it confirms that selling pressure has dried up and the stock is being quietly accumulated.

Our scanner identifies stocks that IPO'd within the last 6-18 months (the optimal window for first-base setups), have declined 30-60% from their post-IPO high, and are now building a tight consolidation base with declining volume. The 6-month minimum ensures the company has enough trading history for pattern detection, while the 18-month maximum focuses on stocks still in their first base cycle. Each setup is graded based on the decline magnitude, base duration and tightness, and the degree of volume contraction — with the tightest, longest bases showing the most volume dry-up receiving the highest grades.

Origin & History

William O'Neil identified the IPO base as a distinct pattern through his study of every market-leading stock from 1880 to the present day, which he compiled into the Model Book of Greatest Stock Market Winners. He published his findings in How to Make Money in Stocks (1988, with subsequent editions in 2009 and 2014), noting that many superperformers like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon launched their biggest advances from their first proper base after going public. Mark Minervini further refined IPO base analysis in Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard (2013), emphasizing that the first consolidation after a significant post-IPO decline represents the market's first opportunity to establish an institutional-quality base pattern. The pattern gained renewed attention with the wave of high-profile IPOs in 2020-2021, many of which followed the classic IPO base lifecycle.

Detection Criteria

Our scanner evaluates the following criteria when detecting IPO Base Builder setups across 5,000+ stocks daily.

IPO date within 6-18 months
The 6-month minimum ensures enough trading history for reliable pattern detection. The 18-month maximum focuses on the first-base opportunity — the most powerful setup in an IPO's lifecycle. After 18 months, the stock has had time to form multiple bases and the first-base advantage diminishes.
Decline of 30-60% from post-IPO high
A 30-60% decline from the high represents the normal post-IPO correction where early investors take profits and lock-up shares hit the market. Less than 30% decline may not represent sufficient shakeout, while more than 60% may indicate fundamental problems rather than normal IPO lifecycle dynamics.
Consolidation range under 15% for 4+ weeks
A tight consolidation range (less than 15% from high to low) held for at least 4 weeks demonstrates that selling pressure has been absorbed and the stock has found a level of equilibrium. Tighter ranges and longer durations indicate more thorough absorption of supply.
Volume contraction during base formation
Declining volume during the consolidation is the most important confirmation signal. It proves that selling pressure is drying up — when there are no more sellers, even modest buying demand can trigger a significant advance.
Base duration and tightness quality
Longer, tighter bases produce more explosive breakouts because they represent more thorough absorption of supply. A 6+ week base with less than 10% range is a higher-quality setup than a 4-week base with a 14% range.

Grading Breakdown

For IPO base setups, an A+ grade means a 40-60% decline from the post-IPO high, a 6+ week tight consolidation base, and significant volume contraction (dry-up). An A grade requires 30-50% decline with a 4+ week base and declining volume. Lower grades meet the basic criteria with less ideal parameters. This is not a prediction of future price movement — it is a way to prioritize which charts deserve your attention first.

A+
Textbook setup — strong confluence across all criteria. Highest conviction.
A
High-quality setup worth watching closely. Minor criteria may be slightly off.
B+
Decent setup with some reservations. One or two criteria fall short of ideal.
B
Pattern detected but lower conviction. Use as a watchlist candidate, not a trade trigger.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Buying IPOs too early — before the stock has had time to form a proper base; the 6-month minimum window exists because most IPOs need several months of selling and consolidation before a reliable base forms
Ignoring the volume pattern during the base — a tight price range without declining volume suggests indecision rather than accumulation; true IPO bases show a clear volume dry-up
Buying stocks that have declined more than 60% from their IPO high — at that level the decline may indicate fundamental problems rather than normal post-IPO profit-taking

How to Trade This Pattern

Entry

Buy on the breakout above the top of the consolidation range on above-average volume. The breakout should occur on volume at least 50% above the 50-day average, confirming institutional interest.

Stop Loss

Place stop below the base's low — the bottom of the consolidation range. This level represents the point where the base has failed and the stock may resume its post-IPO decline.

Price Target

The initial target is the post-IPO high — the stock's all-time high. Many IPO base breakouts go on to exceed the prior high by a significant margin. After reaching the IPO high, trail stops using the 21-day EMA to capture the extended move that often follows.

This is educational content only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.

Related Scanners

Learn More

View IPO Base Builder landing pageBrowse all articles
Start scanning free

All 33 patterns, top 6 results, no credit card required

Start scanning free →
AskLivermore scans 5,000+ NASDAQ and NYSE stocks daily · Not financial advice · Past performance does not guarantee future results